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再谈对新冠病毒的认识和思考

热度 2已有 64 次阅读2020-4-29 10:48 |个人分类:时事随笔|系统分类:热点杂谈 | 宽屏 请点击显示宽屏,再点击恢复窄屏 | 动漫全图 如只见部分动漫,请点击显示全图,再点击恢复窄图

再谈对新冠病毒的认识和思考

文/春雨秋风


新冠状病毒(Covid-19)的世界大流行依然如火如荼。当东亚,欧洲,北美流行感染峰期即将过去之时,世界卫生组织(WHO)和许多知名专家学者开始关注南亚和非洲的疫情发展,并且担忧这些国家的医疗卫生系统,生活水平状况可能导致世界疫情更进一步的恶化失控。这些想法不无道理,但如果仔细分析,或许与事实相距甚远。

经过三个多月的病毒世界范围的流行,人们也逐渐对这个全新,未知的病毒有了更多,更深刻的认识。以下这些是关键点

1,传染性很强,随时造成短时期的人群集中爆发。

2,感染者不分性别和年纪,但死亡主要集中在高龄人,许多国家和地区平均死亡年纪在80岁,或者80岁以上。

3,医疗系统有着巨大的社会性心理安慰作用,因为缺乏抗病毒的有效药物,医院从疾病的治疗总体数量和拯救生命的宏观角度而言,意义不大,甚至可以忽略不记。现在已知病毒感染者,85-90%是在家休息自愈,10%左右的住院病人,其中需要使用呼吸机拯救生命的只占1/4,而这四分之一的存活率小于50%。

4,感染者自愈的条件,取决于年纪,身体健康状况,自身免疫功能。

5,没有疫苗的情况下,人类接受与病毒共存是唯一,不以人们意志为转移的事实,没有其它选择。

基于以上对病毒的认识,我个人认为世界卫生组织(WHO)和许多专家学者对印度和非洲的,基于其医疗系统完善程度和水平的担忧,是不符合这个病毒感染和痊愈的客观特征,所以这种担忧并不成立,更是无益,导致缺乏可靠客观依据的,持续性的世界范围内的恐慌。

我们看看印度和非洲在这此疫情的人口和社会自然优势。

1,印度人口的平均寿命是68岁左右,非洲人口的平均寿命是63岁左右。人口寿命远远低于西方国家死亡年纪80岁的平均值,所以死亡率会明显低于许多发达国家。因为感染者普遍年轻,印度和非洲的病毒感染死亡率或者更接近病毒感染死亡率0.4%的德国。低死亡率会大大减轻医疗系统的压力,也减少社会性的心理恐慌。

2,良好的卫生环境和卫生习惯对于防止病毒疫情传播有巨大作用,但对于冠状病毒感染自愈的影响很小。相反,长期生活在更接近自然的卫生环境,人体会具备适应性更广泛,更健康的免疫系统。这种更健康的免疫系统或许对病毒感染有着更好的拮抗和自愈功能。

3,不完备的公共卫生机制,一方面可能导致防疫,隔离的低效,另一方面也会在短时期内造成众多感染,随之群体免疫。过程可能激烈,但疫情持续时间会比发达国家缩短很多,如此也会很快恢复正常生活秩序。

当然,我们不能低估这些国家和地区的营养条件,其它疾病间接的连带影响。但无论如何,印度和非洲的疫情流行的发展和转归都应该比世界卫生组织(WHO)和专家学者们所担忧的情况要好,不会是疫情持续的原因。

2020,04,25

The world pandemic of the new coronavirus (Covid-19) is still in full swing. When the peak of epidemic infections in East Asia, Europe, and North America is about to pass, the World Health Organization (WHO) and many well-known experts and scholars have begun to pay attention to the development of the epidemic in South Asia and Africa, and are worried about the health systems in these countries. The epidemic further deteriorated out of control. These ideas are not unreasonable, but if carefully analyzed, they may be far from the truth.

After more than three months of worldwide virus prevalence, people have gradually gained more and deeper understanding of this brand new, unknown virus. The following are the key points

1. It is very contagious, causing a concentrated outbreak of people in a short period of time at any time.

2. Infected persons are regardless of gender and age, but the deaths are mainly concentrated in the elderly. In many countries and regions, the average age of death is 80 years old,or above 80 years old.

3. The medical system has a huge social psychological comfort effect. Because of the lack of effective anti-viral drugs, the hospital is of little significance from the perspective of the total number of disease treatments and the macro perspective of saving lives, and it can even be ignored. It is now known that 85-90% of people infected with the virus are at home to rest and heal themselves, about 10% of inpatients, of which only need to use a ventilator to save lives, only 1/4, and the survival rate of these quarters is less than 50% .

4. The conditions for the self-healing of the infected person depend on age, physical health and autoimmunity.

5. In the absence of vaccines, human beings accept that coexistence with viruses is the only fact, and there is no other choice without the fact that people ’s will is transferred.

Based on the above understanding of the virus, I personally think that the World Health Organization (WHO) and many experts and scholars' concerns about India and Africa, based on the degree of perfection of their medical systems, do not meet the objective characteristics of this virus infection and recovery, so This kind of worry is not true, and it is even useless, leading to a continuous panic around the world that lacks a reliable objective basis.

Let's take a look at the natural advantages of India and Africa in this population and society.

1. The average life expectancy of the Indian population is about 68 years, and the average life expectancy of the African population is about 63 years. The life expectancy of the population is far lower than the average of 80 years of death in Western countries, so the mortality rate will be significantly lower than in many developed countries. Because the infected people are generally young, the mortality rate of viral infections in India and Africa is closer to that of 0.4% in Germany. The low mortality rate will greatly reduce the pressure on the medical system and reduce social psychological panic.

2. Good hygienic environment and hygienic habits have a huge effect on preventing the spread of the virus epidemic, but have little effect on the self-healing of coronavirus infection. On the contrary, living in a health environment closer to nature for a long time, the human body will have a wider adaptability and a healthier immune system. This healthier immune system may have better antagonism and self-healing function against viral infections.

3. An incomplete public health mechanism may lead to inefficiency in epidemic prevention and isolation on the one hand, and on the other hand, it may cause numerous infections in a short period of time, followed by group immunity. The process may be intense, but the duration of the epidemic will be much shorter than that in developed countries, and this will soon restore normal order of life.

Of course, we cannot underestimate the nutritional conditions of these countries and regions, and the indirect joint effects of other diseases. In any case, the development and outcome of the epidemic in India and Africa should be better than what the World Health Organization (WHO) and experts and scholars worry about, and it will not be the cause of further spreading of this pandemic.


2020,04,20
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