US consumers poised for impact of Trump’s China tariffs
美国消费者准备迎接贸易战影响
When the Trump administration last Friday announced a $50bn list of Chinese imports targeted for tariffs, it stressed that it excluded “goods commonly purchased by American consumers such as cellular telephones or televisions”.
特朗普(Trump)政府上周五宣布了加征关税的500亿美元中国商品清单，并强调不包括“手机或电视机等美国消费者普遍购买的商品”。
But as Donald Trump escalates his trade spat with Beijing by threatening tariffs on a further $200bn in Chinese imports and pursues possible auto tariffs, it is a pledge the US president is likely to struggle to repeat, due to looming economic and political tests.
但唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)与北京方面的贸易争端已经升级：他威胁要对另外2000亿美元中国商品加征关税，还可能对汽车加征关税。在此情况下，因隐隐迫近的经济和政治考验，这位美国总统大概很难再重复开头所述的承诺。
In the already imposed global steel and aluminium tariffs and the China lists it has unveiled so far, the Trump administration has largely focused on raw materials and components. Its target has been supply chains, and the impact upon US consumers has been indirect.
特朗普政府已对所有进口钢铁及铝加征关税，从这一点以及截至目前所公布的中国商品征税清单来看，它主要关注的是原材料和零部件。它的目标一直是供应链，对美国消费者的影响一直是间接的。
Yet proposed tariffs on the $191bn in new cars and light trucks that US consumers purchased from overseas last year and a new $200bn round of import taxes aimed at China would impact US consumers more directly.
但拟对进口新车和轻型卡车加征的关税（去年美国这部分进口额达1910亿美元），以及新一轮针对中国的2000亿美元进口税，将对美国消费者造成更直接的冲击。
Asked on Tuesday how the Trump administration planned to avoid hitting consumers with higher prices as part of its trade fight with Beijing, Peter Navarro, a senior White House trade adviser, pleaded good intentions. “What we’re trying to do here is simply defend ourselves against Chinese economic aggression and bring about structural change,” he said.
周二，当被问及特朗普政府计划如何避免其与北京方面的贸易战所导致的价格上升伤及消费者时，白宫高级贸易顾问彼得•纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)用这种做法的出发点是好的来辩解。他说：“我们现在努力在做的，只是抵御中国的经济侵略，并带来结构性变化。”
Mr Trump has made reducing the US’s $375bn annual trade deficit with China as a primary goal of his trade policy. The problem facing his administration is that much of what the US imports from China is in the form of goods that US consumers both want and may not like paying more for.
特朗普已将减少每年3750亿美元的美国对华贸易逆差作为其贸易政策的主要目标。特朗普政府面临的一个问题是：大部分美国从中国进口的商品都是美国消费者既想要、又可能不愿多掏钱的商品。
More than $100bn of the $505bn in merchandise that the US imported from China last year was in two categories: mobile phones and computers. The top 15 products by value brought in from China accounted for $350bn, or 70 per cent, of US imports, and 10 of those were consumer goods including toys, sporting goods, household appliances and televisions.
去年美国从中国进口了5050亿美元商品，其中有逾1000亿美元都是两类商品：手机和电脑。以价值计前15种中国商品的进口额达3500亿美元，占到美国对华进口的70%。其中10种为消费品，包括玩具、体育用品、家用电器和电视机。
Just how hard the Trump administration has worked to avoid hitting US consumers directly so far is evident in how the $50bn tariff list it unveiled last Friday differed from its first list released in April. Twelve per cent of products on the original list, analysts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics found, could be classified as consumer goods. That fell to 1 per cent on the final June 15 list thanks in part to lobbying by companies such as retailer Best Buy, which worked hard to have flatscreen televisions removed.
只要比较一下上周五特朗普政府公布的500亿美元关税清单与其4月份发布的第一份清单之间的区别，就能明显看出，特朗普政府一直极力避免对美国消费者造成直接打击。彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的分析师发现，原始清单中有12%的产品可以归类为消费品。该数字在6月15日的最终清单中降到1%，这部分要归功于一些企业的游说，比如零售商百思买(Best Buy)，该公司极力游说将平板电视剔除出去。
Mary Lovely, a Syracuse University trade expert now at the Peterson Institute, said all tariffs eventually hurt consumers in the form of higher prices. But what is likely to change with a new list of Chinese targets and auto tariffs is the speed with which those price increases are passed on.
雪城大学(Syracuse University)贸易问题专家、彼得森研究所客座研究员玛丽•洛夫利(Mary Lovely)表示，所有关税最终都会体现为价格上涨、从而损害消费者利益。但新的中国产品征税清单以及汽车关税可能改变的，是涨价转嫁到消费者身上的速度。
Mr Trump has already launched a national security investigation into auto imports that would yield the 25 per cent tariff he is said to want. The probe could see car brands such as Mercedes and Toyota that export significant numbers of cars to the US facing hefty price increases by the end of the year.
特朗普已启动对汽车进口的国家安全调查，调查结果将支持征收据说是他想要的25%的关税。该调查可能导致梅赛德斯(Mercedes)及丰田(Toyota)等向美国出口大量汽车的汽车品牌在今年年底前面临大幅提价。
Likewise, if Mr Trump goes ahead with the new tariffs on an additional $200bn in Chinese imports, these could take effect by the third quarter.
同样，如果特朗普真的对额外2000亿美元中国商品征收新关税，新税率可能在今年第三季度就会生效。
“I think the distinction [between the first round of tariffs and what comes next] is just one of time. How long does it take to pass through the cost to the consumer and does it come before the [November midterm] election,” Ms Lovely said.
洛夫利表示：“我认为（第一轮关税与后续的关税之间的）区别只在于时间。成本传导到消费者那里需要多久，以及是不是在（11月中期选举）前。”
That election is one reason many Republicans in Congress worry about tariffs and how consumers will respond. If the experience of past protectionism holds true, an economy now being fuelled by the stimulus of tax cuts is likely to be hurt more than it is helped by tariffs designed to protect domestic industries and punish trading partners.
中期选举是美国国会内许多共和党人对关税以及消费者将作何反应感到担心的原因之一。如果过去实施保护主义的经验成立，那么这些旨在保护国内产业、惩罚贸易伙伴的关税，对一个正受到减税政策刺激推动的经济体，可能造成的伤害多于帮助。
The administration shrugs that history off. Its supporters argue that the largely consumer-driven US economy is gaining strength and may even hit 4 per cent growth in the current quarter. Retail sales and consumer confidence have remained high.
特朗普政府对历史经验不屑一顾。其支持者认为，主要由消费者驱动的美国经济正在高歌猛进，其增速在本季度甚至可能达到4%。美国的零售销售和消费者信心仍然高涨。
Still, in some parts of Mr Trump’s heartland even his supporters have started to get nervous.
尽管如此，在特朗普的中坚地带的部分地区，即使他的支持者也开始感到紧张。
From the South Dakota ranch supply store that he and his wife have owned since the 1970s, Gary Cammack has watched the beef ranchers he caters to in five states grow nervous about trade disputes that are already affecting them.
加里•坎马克(Gary Cammack)和妻子从上世纪70年代开始在南达科他州经营牧场用品店，他观察到自己服务的五个州的牛肉农场主都对这场贸易争端越来越紧张，这一争端已经让他们受到影响。
But Mr Cammack and his customers fret about both the possibility of retaliation in the form of beef tariffs from China and other aggrieved trading partners, tumbling commodity futures and the reality of rising costs due to the steel and aluminium tariffs. The $60 cost of a quarter-mile roll of the barbed wire ranchers use to fence their properties has already risen 10 per cent, he said, and he expects higher prices still.
但坎马克和他的客户担心的不仅是中国和其他利益受损的贸易伙伴可能报复性对美国牛肉征收关税，商品期货暴跌，还有钢铁及铝关税导致的成本不断上涨的现实。他说，牧场主用来围护土地的铁丝网，原来一卷（0.25英里）60美元，现在已经涨了10%，他预计价格还会继续上涨。
“If the election was held today I’d still vote for him and I’m hoping that I am not understanding the entire strategy here,” Mr Cammack said. But “when I try to put logic to this tariff thing I’m a little confused . . . We’re all trying to decipher what the end game is.”
坎马克说：“如果大选是今天举行，我还是会投票给他，而且我希望是我没搞懂这整个战略。但当我试图去理解这些关税的逻辑时，我有点迷惑……我们都在试图搞清楚终局是什么。”
雷达卡
发表于 2018-6-26 12:20:17
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