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FINANCIAL TIMES: “亚洲世纪”即将开启 转载 “亚洲世纪”即...

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发表于 2019-3-28 17:51:54 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 新鲜人 于 2019-3-29 15:04 编辑

数据表明,就在明年,亚洲经济规模按购买力平价计算将超过世界其他地区的总和。这将标志着亚洲回到世界中心。

经济学家、政治学家和研究新兴市场的专家们几十年来一直在谈论亚洲时代的到来,据称这一时刻将是亚洲成为新的世界中心的转折点。

亚洲人口早已超过全球半数。联合国(UN)的数据显示,全球最大的30座城市中,21座位于亚洲。到明年,亚洲还将拥有全球一半的中产阶层人口,这里的中产定义是按2005年购买力平价(PPP)计算,每日人均收入在10美元至100美元之间的家庭。

LMC Automotive的数据显示,自2007年以来,亚洲人购买的轿车和卡车数量一直超过其他任何地区的居民——到2030年左右,亚洲人购买的汽车数量将相当于世界其他地区的总和。

亚洲领导人开始更公开地谈论这一转变。印度总理纳伦德拉?莫迪(NarendraModi)在亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)上届年会上表示:“现在,亚洲发现自己身处全球经济活动的中心。它已经成为世界主要的增长引擎。实际上,我们正在经历许多人所称的‘亚洲世纪’。”

那么,亚洲时代究竟将从何时开始?

英国《金融时报》对数据进行了统计,发现按照联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)的界定,亚洲经济规模将在2020年超过世界其他地区的总和——19世纪以来的首次。数据显示,亚洲世纪将从明年开启。

要知道,在2000年,亚洲还只占到全球产出的三分之一多一点。


为了进行计算,英国《金融时报》梳理了国际货币基金组织(IMF)的相关数据,这些数据是按照不同国家的价格差异对各国国内生产总值(GDP)进行调整得来的。这种用购买力平价(PPP)来评估经济体规模的方法,被普遍认为是适当的测量方法,因为它将物价通常较低的发展中国家的人口实际的购买力考虑在内。

即便以市场汇率计算,亚洲仍占到全球产出的38%,而本世纪头几年时为26%。

亚洲经济令世界其他地区逊色的原因是什么?中国和印度的崛起是这一趋势背后的主要原因。按购买力平价计算,中国目前的经济规模已超过美国,占今年全球产出的19%,是2000年的占比7%的两倍多。按购买力平价计算,印度如今是世界第三大经济体,经济总量约是德国或日本的两倍,而在2000年,印度的经济规模按购买力平价计算小于德国和日本。

世界即将进入亚洲时代,不仅归功于亚洲这两个最大经济体,还得益于中小型国家的增长。

按购买力平价计算,到2020年,印度尼西亚有望成为世界第七大经济体,并将在2023年之前超过俄罗斯,成为第六大经济体。

越南是亚洲增长最快的经济体之一。自2000年至2023年,在按购买力平价计算的经济体排名中,越南预计将超越17个国家,其中包括比利时和瑞士。菲律宾现在的经济规模超过了荷兰,而孟加拉国过去20年超越了13个经济体。


点击图片,可放大查看

亚洲这一轮快速增长——始于日本战后的快速经济增长——标志着向一种历史常态的回归。亚洲在人类历史的大部分时间一直主导着世界经济,直至19世纪。
意大利博科尼大学(Bocconi University)经济史教授安德烈亚?科利(Andrea Colli)表示:“大约17世纪末的时候,欧洲用羡慕和嫉妒的眼光注视着这一地区,这里集中了……世界逾三分之二的GDP、逾四分之三的人口。”

根据印度政治家兼作家沙希?塔鲁尔(Shashi Tharoor)的估算,18世纪时,印度占世界经济的份额与欧洲相当。


接下来,在三个世纪的时间里,亚洲在全球的地位随着西方经济腾飞而下降。推动西方经济增长的正是学者们所称的科学革命(Scientific Revolution),以及接下来的启蒙运动(Enlightenment)和工业革命(Industrial Revolution)。

美国西北大学(Northwestern University)教授乔尔?莫基尔(Joel Mokyr)说:“我们正在目睹的是一场大逆转。1500年至1750年间,欧洲发生了翻天覆地的变化;但世界其他地区没有。”

到20世纪50年代,虽然亚洲的人口占世界人口一半以上,但产出还不到全球的20%。

曾执教牛津大学(University of Oxford)的纽约大学阿布扎比分校(NYU Abu Dhabi)经济史教授鲍勃?艾伦(Bob Allen)说:“19世纪,亚洲从世界制造业中心变成了出口大宗农产品的典型的欠发达经济体。”

但近几十年来,这一趋势得到了逆转。

日本和韩国是最早一批追上西方的亚洲国家,但中国后来的迅猛增长令两国“相形见绌”。上世纪70年代末,在邓小平的领导下,中国开始实行市场化改革,继而实现了经济腾飞。

由科希?马塔伊(Koshy Mathai)领导的团队编制的IMF最新地区展望报告指出,在短短两三代人时间里,“通过贸易和外商直接投资融入全球经济、高储蓄率、大规模投资人力和实物资本,以及稳健的宏观经济政策,这些有利因素的组合”促成了亚洲经济的飞跃。

马凯硕(Kishore Mahbubani)在其最新著作《西方输了吗?》(Has The west Lost It?)中写道:“西方跨越两个世纪的作为全球中心的时代结束了。”

按照世界银行(World Bank)的定义,过去50年,数亿亚洲人摆脱了贫困,许多亚洲经济体已达到中等收入或发达经济体水平。


亚洲仍比世界其他地区贫穷,但差距正在缩小。IMF数据显示,按购买力平价计算,中国人均GDP仍仅为美国的三分之一左右、欧盟的44%左右;印度人均GDP仅为欧盟的20%左右。

但自2000年以来,中印两国的人均收入与美欧的差距已大幅缩小。经过这段时期,中国的人均产出几乎已是撒哈拉以南非洲地区的五倍,而两个地区在上世纪90年代中期水平相当。

无论以何种标准衡量,亚洲都即将重新占据全球经济舞台的中心。艾伦教授表示,当这一时刻到来时,“世界将回到原点”。



Economists, political scientists and emerging market pundits have been talking for decades about the coming of the Asian Age, which will supposedly mark an inflection point when the continent becomes the new centre of the world.

Asia is already home to more than half the world’s population. Of the world’s 30 largest cities, 21 are in Asia, according to UN data. By next year, Asia will also become home to half of the world’s middle class, defined as those living in households with daily per capita incomes of between $10 and $100 at 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP).

Since 2007, Asians have been buying more cars and trucks than people in any other region — by about 2030 they will be buying as many vehicles as the rest of the world combined, according to LMC Automotive.

Leaders in the region are beginning to talk more openly about the shift. “Now the continent finds itself at the centre of global economic activity,” Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, told the last annual meeting of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. “It has become the main growth engine of the world. In fact, we are now living through what many have termed the Asian Century,” he said.

So when will the Asian Age actually begin?

The Financial Times tallied the data, and found that Asian economies, as defined by the UN trade and development body Unctad, will be larger than the rest of the world combined in 2020, for the first time since the 19th century. The Asian century, the numbers show, begins next year.

To put this in perspective, Asia accounted for just over a third of world output in 2000.

To make its calculations, the FT examined IMF data based on gross domestic product after adjusting for price differences in different countries. This method, which assesses economies by PPP, is widely considered the most relevant measure as it takes into account what people can actually buy in developing countries where prices are often cheaper. Even at market exchange value, Asia still accounts for 38 per cent of global output, up from 26 per cent in the early 2000s. What lies behind Asia’s economic eclipse of the rest of the world? The rise of China and India explains a large part of this trend. China is now a bigger economy at PPP than the US, accounting for 19 per cent of world output this year, more than double the 7 per cent recorded in 2000. India is now the world’s third-largest economy, with a GDP about double the size of either Germany or Japan, both of which had economies larger than India’s on a PPP basis in 2000.The world’s imminent entry to an Asian age is coming not just because of its two largest economies, but also thanks to growth among smaller and midsize countries. Indonesia is on track to become the world’s seventh-largest economy at PPP by 2020, and will have overtaken Russia by 2023 as the sixth biggest.



click the image to zoom in


Vietnam, one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, has overtaken 17 countries in a ranking of economies in PPP terms since 2000, including Belgium and Switzerland. The Philippines is now a larger economy than the Netherlands while Bangladesh has overtaken 13 other economies in the past 20 years.

Asia’s recent surge, which began with Japan’s postwar economic surge, represents a return to a historical norm. Asia dominated the world economy for most of human history until the 19th century.


“Around the end of the 17th century, Europe was looking with admiration and envy at a region of the globe which concentrated . . . more than two-thirds of the world’s gross domestic product, and three-quarters of the world’s population,” said Andrea Colli, professor of economic history at Bocconi University in Italy.

In the 18th century, India’s share of the world economy was as big as Europe’s, according to Indian politician and author Shashi Tharoor. Then, for three centuries, Asia’s place in the world shrank as western economies took off, powered by what academics refer to as the Scientific Revolution, then the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution. “What you are looking at is the great reversal,” says Joel Mokyr, professor at Northwestern University. “Between 1500 and 1750 Europe changed dramatically; the rest of the world did not.” By the 1950s, Asia accounted for less than 20 per cent of world output, despite hosting more than half the world’s population. “In the 19th century, Asia was transformed from the world’s manufacturing centre into classic underdeveloped economies exporting agricultural commodities,” said Bob Allen, professor of economic history at NYU, Abu Dhabi, who was formerly at the University of Oxford. But in recent decades that trend has been reversed.The dramatic rise of Japan and South Korea, the first countries in Asia to catch up with the west, has been “dwarfed” by China’s take-off following the country’s introduction of market-oriented reforms under Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s. In just a couple of generations, a “winning mix of integration with the global economy via trade and foreign direct investment, high savings rates, large investments in human and physical capital, and sound macroeconomic policies” contributed to Asia’s economic leap forward, according to the IMF’s latest regional outlook compiled by a team led by Koshy Mathai.“The west's two-century epoch as global powerhouse is at an end,” argues Kishore Mahbubani in his latest book “Has the West Lost It?” Over the past five decades, hundreds of millions of people in Asia have been lifted out of poverty and many Asian economies have graduated to middle-income or advanced economic status, according to World Bank definitions.


Asia remains poorer than the rest of the world, but the gap is narrowing. China’s GDP per capita at PPP is still only about one-third of that of the US, and about 44 per cent of that of the EU. India has a GDP per capita at PPP of only about 20 per cent that of the EU, according to IMF data.

But India and China’s per-capita income gap with the US and Europe has narrowed dramatically since 2000. Over that period, China has become nearly five times richer than the average per capita output of sub-Saharan Africa. The two regions were at similar levels in the mid-1990s.

By any measure, Asia is about to reoccupy the centre of the global economic stage. When it does, “the world will have come full circle”, Prof Allen said.
   

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发表于 2019-3-29 15:13:19 | 显示全部楼层
英国《金融时报》:   华为2018年净利润同比增长25%
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一直被朋友称为小博士。其实就是书读得多一些而已。
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